27 January, 2006

Canada: 2005-06 CWB’s Pool Return Outlook for feed and designated barley

The CWB released on January 26 its Pool Return Outlook (PRO) for the 2005-06 crop year. Compared to last month, the Pool A and B feed barley PROs are unchanged, while the designated barley PRO is down C$1 per tonne.

	January PRO		December PRO
	2005-2006		2005-2006
In store Vancouver or St. Lawrence
	Tonne	Bushel	Tonne	Bushel
Feed barley
1 CW – Pool A	125.00	2.72	125.00	2.72
1 CW – Pool B	115.00	2.50	115.00	2.50
Designated barley
SS CW Two-Row	171.00	3.72	172.00	3.74
Std Sel Two-Row	166.00	3.61	167.00	3.64
SS CW Six-Row	163.00	3.55	164.00	3.57
Std Sel Six-Row	158.00	3.44	159.00	3.46

Note: PROs are the CWB's estimate of crop year returns. Farmers who use PROs to make marketing decisions are advised that unusual weather in importing or exporting countries and other changes in market conditions could dramatically affect the price forecasts. PROs are not price guarantees and should not be confused with initial payments. PROs also do not represent CWB offer values for prospective sales transactions nor sales values for actual transactions.

PRO Commentary
2005-06 crop year

Feed barley
Pool A - Sales of this pool are essentially complete. Australian barley and Black Sea exports continue to pressure the market.

Pool B - Global competition remains aggressive, as Australian and Black Sea barley supplies continue to be priced aggressively. An expectation of a large global barley crop in 2006-07 is also weighing on the market.

Designated barley
Already burdensome Australian malting barley supplies for export have increased since last month, given higher yields and favourable harvest weather. This, in turn, has pressured the malting barley price outlook. The strengthening Canadian dollar is also having a negative impact on returns.

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